How it was, how it’s going?👀
As we look back on 2024, several key trends shaped the venture capital landscape, and no, it was not only AI stuff 🤔. We had ups ⏫ and downs⏬, positives ☺️ and dramas😠, another series of tech weeks 🥳, new podcasts🎤, emerging celebrities 🥂, ‘death’ of crypto hype (and record bitcoin high!🫰), AI all over the place, Nvidia made it to the 🔝, humanoids stepping in 🤖, China’s 🇨🇳VC market in turbulence, Deep Tech ⚒️startups in demand, and of course some politic 🧑⚖️ events happened that will surely make the history but I must say it’s been a good one. Lots of lessons learned and things to look forward to in 2025!
Highlights of 2024:
1⃣Zero Exits in China* 😮
*None of the top 10 global PE groups in China saw a public listing or full M&A exit this year, a first in at least a decade!
2⃣The Year of Humanoid Robots
The media called 2024 “the year of the humanoid robots”. The rapid developments in the field are fueled by the boom in artificial intelligence, robotics adoption growth, and a pressing demand for automation across multiple industries (including manufacturing, industrial, and home).
Check out my snapshot from the Silicon Valley Humanoid Summit.
3⃣Request for HardTech Startups aka IndustrialTech is back & hotter than ever!
The hard tech renaissance accelerates with YC spotlighting innovations such asa pplying machine learning to robotics, using machine learning to simulate the physical world, new defense technology, bring manufacturing back to America, new space companies, climate tech, commercial open source companies, spatial computing, new enterprise resource planning software (ERPs), developer tools inspired by existing internal tools, explainable AI, LLMs for manual back office processes in legacy enterprises, AI to build enterprise software, stablecoin finance, away to end cancer, andfoundation models for biological systems.
Additionally, DeepTech enthusiasts organized several industry-focused events for the first time, aiming to establish a long-lasting annual gathering for HardTech founders and investors.
Reindustrialization Summit 2024. Detroit, MI June 25–26. Explore how technology will shape the future of the US industrial base.
Deep Tech Week: The future is being built in San Francisco, and it’s more than just AI. Energy, biotech, robotics, neurotech, computing, manufacturing, aerospace, defense, and more — DeepTech is driving a revolution in our physical world. It’s time to celebrate the visionaries tackling bold quests and building the future of atoms. Join founders, investors, engineers, scientists, artists, and designers as they imagine and create a bolder, better future. Turning science fiction into reality is closer than ever. Stay tuned for next year’s edition!
4⃣Artificial Intelligence on The Raise
AI dominated the venture capital landscape this year, securing some of the largest funding rounds of the decade. In Q2 alone, AI startups raised an impressive $16.8 billion, with standout deals such as xAI’s $6 billion Series B and CoreWeave’s $1.1 billion Series C. While the total number of funding rounds decreased, their larger size reflects a significant concentration of capital in key players driving the AI revolution.
5⃣Hopeful and Cautious Recovery of the Private Markets
➡️ Is “IPO winter” finally over? We had quite a few examples of successful IPOs this year.
➡️Corporate Venture Capital
Corporate venture capital (CVC) activity in 2024 showed resilience despite overall market challenges.
North America and Asia dominated CVC activity, accounting for 77–86% of total investments. CVCs participated in 33 $100M+ mega-rounds in Q1 2024.
In Q2 2024, over half ($8.4B) of CVC-backed funding came from $100M+ mega-rounds.
Unfortunately, some CVCs didn’t make it this year and had to shut down:
– Anglo American’s Decarbonisation Ventures: Closed due to financial difficulties and corporate restructuring.
– Verizon Ventures: Shut down to streamline operations and focus on core business areas.
– SAP.io: Discontinued likely due to internal strategic realignment despite outward success.
– Emasa Ventures: A $20M Chilean CVC focused on EVs, closed during a company-wide restructuring in March 2024.
6⃣Fundraising Winners and Losers
The top 30 VC funds raised 75% of all the VC capital. Emerging managers are struggling to close smaller funds. Which is interesting cause looks like big funds are not crossing 3x TVPI by much.
7⃣ The Year When Lots of Startups Died
254 venture-backed companies went out of business only in Q1 2024, according to data from Carta. This represents a 58% increase compared to Q1 2023!
CEO Departures Have Reached a Record High with Almost 2,000!
In the first 11 months of the year, 1,991 CEOs have announced their departures, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. That’s up 16% compared with the same timeframe last year and the highest tally on record since the firm began tracking CEO changes in 2002.
8⃣Sam Altman the Person of the Year!
Sam had a heck of a year! 2024 solidified his position as one of the most influential figures in tech. The OpenAI CEO began the year riding high on the success of ChatGPT, his personal wealth surging and his audience coveted by world leaders. He launched groundbreaking products — an AI voice assistant, synthetic video generator, and AI-driven search engine — while spearheading an audacious $7 trillion fundraising effort to challenge Nvidia’s dominance in AI chip manufacturing. However, Altman’s meteoric rise faced turbulence. Fired briefly by OpenAI’s nonprofit board before reclaiming his role, his golden year was tarnished by scrutiny over conflicts of interest and claims that safety had been deprioritized in favor of rapid product development. Resignations from key safety researchers and whistleblower allegations regarding restrictive NDAs added to the challenges. Yet, Altman’s resilience shone through. He implemented a new safety committee and maintained OpenAI’s dominance, with GPT4-o leading the AI race. For a man who thrives on perseverance, Altman’s tumultuous year underscored both his influence and the growing complexities of leading the AI revolution.
9⃣NVIDIA’s Remarkable Success in 2024
NVIDIA’s stock (NVDA) has experienced significant growth in 2024, reflecting the company’s strong financial performance and leadership in AI and GPU technologies. In fiscal year 2024, NVIDIA reported a 126% increase in revenue, reaching $60.9 billion, with GAAP earnings per diluted share rising by 586% to $11.93.
The company’s data center revenue was a major contributor, achieving a record $18.4 billion in the fourth quarter, marking a 409% year-over-year growth. Analysts maintain a positive outlook on NVIDIA, with an average 12-month price target of $167.85, suggesting a potential 19.7% increase from the current stock price. We must mention that it all happened under the visionary leadership of the one and only Jensen Huang. Known for his charismatic storytelling and bold, long-term strategies, Huang consistently inspires innovation while fostering a culture of collaboration. His unique ability to anticipate industry trends and execute transformative ideas has positioned NVIDIA as a leader in shaping the future of technology. Will they become a software company as they claim and execute such a bold vision again?!
🔟 Donald Trump is Back and back(ed) be Elon Musk.
Last but not least, Donald Trump won the presidential election and will serve as our president once again. He has appointed Elon Musk to lead the so-called ‘DOGE’ — the Department of Government Efficiency.
My favorite resources highlighting the top events of 2024 as we know them:
➡️2024 LA Hard Tech 50: Highlighting the leaders shaping LA’s hard tech ecosystem
➡️Venture Capital Trends and Outlook for 2024 — AlphaSense
➡️Top VC Fundraising Trends of 2024 — HubSpot
➡️Global Venture Capital Outlook: The Latest Trends — Bain & Company
➡️2024 Venture Capital Outlook
➡️VC Investment Landscape 2024 — Founders Network
➡️2024 SaaS Benchmarks Report
➡️The year in review 2024
How it’s going…(to be in 2025)?
As we look ahead to 2025, several key trends are expected to shape our venture capital landscape:
1⃣Shifting Focus to Deep Tech will Continue
The deep tech sector has maintained a stable 20% share of global venture capital funding, up from about 10% a decade ago. Semiconductors and Advanced Manufacturing are poised to create historic market value. The space economy is projected to reach $44 billion in valuation by 2033.
Major generalist VC funds like Accel, a16z (American Dynamizm), Sequoia Capital, Lightspeed, and Khosla Ventures are increasing their allocation to deep tech investments. VCs in general are developing expertise to assess complex technologies, giving them confidence to deepen their exposure to the sector so let’s see how the funding landscape will unfold in 2025!
2⃣AI Dominance and Its Evolution are Expected to Increase
AI-powered hardware is predicted to experience rapid growth in 2025. The synergy between quantum technology and AI is expected to become more evident to frontier tech investors. AI-native applications are anticipated to attract the strongest funding momentum next year. Additionally, many AI-native companies are on track to surpass $50 million in annual recurring revenue in 2025, and AI exits are projected to rise significantly, with M&As likely to outnumber IPOs.
3⃣Focus on Government Initiatives
We can anticipate increased collaboration between government initiatives and private venture capital, especially following President Donald Trump’s return to office. In Europe, the European Innovation Council plans to invest €1.4 billion in deep tech and strategic technologies as part of its 2025 work program. Meanwhile, the UK government is making its largest-ever R&D investment, allocating £20.4 billion for 2025–2026.
4⃣Efficiency and Lean Operations will Prevail
The trend toward smaller, more agile teams delivering greater results with fewer resources will continue. This shift highlights the importance of efficiency, innovation, and streamlined operations in startup culture. Startups are not only building tech but also leveraging it to boost their efficiencies and gain a competitive edge so we can expect that the startups structure and operations will change.
5⃣Market Recovery and Liquidity are Expected to Finally Happen
Improved market conditions for venture capital are expected in 2025 as the effects of overinvestment during 2021–2022 subside. Private investment performance is likely to rebound, and the IPO market is set to recover, offering more exit opportunities for VCs. 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for venture capital, driven by advancements in AI, sector-specific innovations, market recovery, and emerging market opportunities. While some companies will achieve spectacular success, others will face fierce competition and the challenges of a high-stakes environment.
More predictions from my favorite investors and industry experts:
➡️AI in 2025: Building Blocks Firmly in Place by Sequoia
➡️Big Ideas in Tech 2025 by a16z
➡️2025 Outlook: Private Equity & Venture Capital
➡️Our 2025 predictions — RTP Global
➡️Venture capital outlook for 2025: 5 key trends
➡️Mike’s Five Predictions for 2025 — Alumni Ventures
➡️5 + 1 Predictions for Venture Studios in 2025 — Focused Chaos
➡️How to Spot the Next Big Thing: Trends VCs Should Be Watching
➡️LP Predictions For Venture Capital In 2025 — Forbes
➡️Five Critical Venture Capital Trends To Watch In 2025 — Forbes
Favorite resources of the year:
➡️AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner — link
➡️The All-In Holiday Spectacular from our beloved Besties — link
➡️Bernie Sanders Interview | Lex Fridman Podcast — link
➡️Elon Musk, The Changing World Order & America’s Future — Marc Andreessen — link
➡️BealBook Summit by NYT — link
➡️Dan Wright, CEO Armada | Trae Stephens Next Big Bet — link
➡️Nvidia Founder and CEO Jensen Huang on the AI revolution — link
➡️The Diary Of A CEO — link
➡️New Humanoid Robots — link
Passionate about HardTech?
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