What’s Driving the Humanity’s Scarcity?
Declining Birth Rates
This is quite basic and not surprising at all. Globally, birth rates have been falling below replacement levels in many countries, including Japan, South Korea, much of Europe, and even China.
This trend is driven by factors such as urbanization, economic pressures, changing societal norms, and access to education and contraception. While a shrinking population can present economic challenges — such as fewer workers to support aging populations — it also allows for deeper investments in education, innovation, and well-being. A world with fewer people, but more capable and fulfilled individuals, could be a net positive🤔
Technological Development
Technology has profoundly reshaped our lives. It’s being adopted faster and faster. Even the slow and legacy businesses accelerated. Currently, the standard automotive design cycle spans about 24 to 36 months, a significant acceleration compared to the 60-month cycle common five years ago. The chart below, designed by Nicholas Felton of The New York Times, illustrates the time required for various technologies — from electricity to the Internet — to achieve different levels of adoption in U.S. households. For example, the telephone, introduced before 1900, took several decades to reach 50% household penetration, whereas cellphones achieved the same milestone in under five years by 1990.
Let’s take a closer look at what we’ve achieved so far!
➡️Flying cars?
Sure, they are already up and running. San Mateo-based aeronautical company Alef has released footage showing a concept version of its flying car performing a vertical takeoff and flying over a parked SUV.
Joby Aviation: Specializes in electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, aiming to revolutionize urban air mobility with flying taxis and ride-sharing.
Terrafugia: Developed the Transition, a roadable aircraft that functions both as a car and a plane, bringing the concept of flying cars closer to reality.
➡️Self-driving cars?
No big deal for many people anymore. Waymo operates in San Francisco, Phoenix, Los Angeles and Austin + they are testing Waymo in Tokyo, Japan this year. Waymo’s driverless cars have driven over 25 million miles on public roads as of December 2024!
➡️Robots breaking record of physics?
This Chinese robotics company has created a robotic dog that can sprint 100 meters in under 10 seconds.
Humanoid robots are also invited to compete in a Beijing half marathon in April, which will pit humans and two-legged robots against each other for the first time. The 21-kilometre race will include over 12,000 human runners and more than 20 teams of humanoid robots developed by manufacturers from around the world.
➡️Humanoids among us?
The last two years accelerated the development of humanoid concept in many different verticals from industrial, home, to hazardous environments like oil and gas. Their armies are already working in production, and logistic environments.
We are asking each other if the ChatGPT moment will happen soon? Here are some thoughts.
➡️Do you want to control your body via brain? No problem!
Neuralink, founded by the one and only Elon Musk, has developed implantable brain chips enabling patients to control devices using their thoughts. In early 2024, their first human patient successfully used the implant to 𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐚 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐮𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐦𝐨𝐮𝐬𝐞 𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲! Read it one more time! It’s magic!
MIT’s Biomechatronics Group: Led by Hugh Herr, this group is developing brain-controlled prosthetic limbs that closely mimic natural movement, significantly enhancing mobility for amputees
➡️De-Extinction Efforts?
Colossal Biosciences, co-founded by George Church and Ben Lamm, aims to revive extinct species like the woolly mammoth using advanced gene-editing technologies. They have made significant strides in this ambitious endeavor.
➡️Why don’t we reverse aging and grow younger as we age?
Longevity and Anti-Aging are quite novel concepts of treating aging as a disease and trying to prevent it rather than cure.
Bryan Johnson’s Blueprint is a great examplo of pioneering this approach. Tech entrepreneur Bryan Johnson has invested millions into “Project Blueprint,” a comprehensive anti-aging regimen involving strict diet, exercise, and supplementation protocols, aiming to significantly slow down the aging process. He is the healthiest person on the planet! How cool must it feel!?
Altos Labs is backed by investors like Jeff Bezos, Altos Labs focuses on biological reprogramming technology to reverse aging processes in cells, potentially extending human lifespan.
➡️Hypersonic transportation and flying faster than at asound speed? From New York to Tokyo within an hour sounds great!
Venus Aerospace: The company is working on building a hypersonic jet, the Stargazer, that would travel at about six times the speed of sound and reach new altitudes and potentially enabling flights from New York to Tokyo in about an hour.
Hermeus: An aerospace company developing hypersonic aircraft capable of reaching speeds up to Mach 5, aiming to revolutionize air travel by significantly reducing flight times.
hermeus.com
➡️Don’t you ever need to take notes, read, write, or manage your schedule? In other words, who can live without ChatGPT these days?
Just a few highlights here how this tool changed our lives!
- ChatGPT has 400 million weekly active users worldwide.
- 67.7 million people use ChatGPT in the US alone.
- Fortune 500 companies: 80% of Fortune 500 companies have integrated ChatGPT into their workflows.
- College students: 43% of college students use ChatGPT.
➡️Mars colonization and becoming a multiplanetary species is no longer just a concept — it’s happening!
SpaceX, Elon Musk’s aerospace company is developing the Starship spacecraft to enable human colonization of Mars, with the ultimate goal of making humanity a multiplanetary species.
So What Does It Mean?
All the advances in AI, robotics, and bioengineering are automating tasks that once required our human effort. This creates a paradox: while technology improves productivity and solves many problems like food scarcity or disease, it also reduces the necessity for large human labor forces. However, rather than replacing humanity, this shift enables people to focus on creative, ethical, and deeply personal contributions that machines cannot replicate. Instead of competing with AI, we can harness it to amplify our unique strengths. This is where human ingenuity, paired with AI-driven sustainability efforts, can create a world where scarcity is replaced by abundance through better resource management and technological breakthroughs. Rather than diminishing humanity’s role, this shift provides a chance to redefine fulfillment — not through productivity alone, but through creativity, exploration, and deep interpersonal connections. Similarly, humanity’s current trajectory could lead to transformative changes in how we value human life and organize society. We may find that, as AI and automation take over mundane tasks, we are free to cultivate the aspects of life that make us uniquely human.
By 2100 (or even sooner), global population growth is expected to decline. Coupled with technological advancements like AI-driven healthcare, renewable energy solutions, and space colonization, humanity could achieve unprecedented levels of well-being. However, this will require careful governance to ensure equitable access to these benefits while mitigating risks such as AI misuse or environmental degradation. The key to a thriving future is not resisting technological progress, but integrating it with a human-centered approach.
What Do We Do now?
A Call for Hope-> Valuing Humanity
While these trends might seem daunting, they also present an opportunity to reimagine what it means to be human. As our numbers decline and technology advances, we have a chance to place greater value on human creativity, empathy, and connection — qualities no machine can truly replicate (yet?). In an era where synthetic interactions become the norm, human presence will be treasured, much like rare art or handcrafted goods in a world of mass production.
How I see the future
We must strive for a balance: leveraging technology to solve pressing issues while ensuring that humanity remains at the center of our progress. Let us celebrate the uniqueness of being human by fostering collaboration across nations, investing in ethical technologies, and creating societies that prioritize well-being over mere productivity.
The greatest irony of progress is that as we build a future teeming with intelligence, we may find ourselves longing for the very thing we once took for granted: each other. And this is good. We will finally value people as they deserve, and humanity will become again the greatest value in the world.
Rather than fearing scarcity, let’s embrace it as an invitation to elevate what it means to be human. The future isn’t about replacing us — it’s about making us more precious than ever before.
Think about what we would do if we wouldn’t need to work for money anymore! If people didn’t need to work, their activities would likely vary based on personal interests, ambitions, and societal structures.
Pursue passions through art, music, writing, or filmmaking while continuously learning new skills, exploring philosophy, and contributing to innovation. Engage with communities by volunteering, advocating for change, and building new social structures. Embrace exploration through travel, fitness, and immersive experiences in entertainment and VR. Reflect on meaning, experiment with different lifestyles, and push the boundaries of science, AI, and human longevity to shape the future.
Some might still work, but on their own terms — driven by passion rather than necessity. Society could shift towards a more creative, exploratory, and meaning-driven existence.
Resources redistribution in the time of Abundance.
The last but not least, if work were no longer necessary due to technological advancements and automation, society would need a system to fairly distribute the abundance of resources generated. Without traditional labor as the primary means of earning income, governments or alternative institutions might play a crucial role in ensuring equitable access to wealth and basic needs.
One approach could be a Universal Basic Income (UBI) or a resource dividend, where every citizen receives a share of the wealth produced by automation and AI-driven industries. Countries with abundant natural resources already implement similar models. For example:
- Norway: Through its sovereign wealth fund, Norway invests oil revenues and distributes returns to benefit citizens, ensuring long-term economic stability.
- Alaska (U.S.): The Alaska Permanent Fund provides annual dividends to residents from oil revenues, helping to share the state’s resource wealth.
- United Arab Emirates (UAE): Citizens benefit from oil wealth through subsidized housing, healthcare, and education.
As automation replaces human labor, similar models may be necessary — not just for resource-rich countries but for any society where technology generates vast wealth. The challenge will be designing fair systems that prevent extreme inequality while still incentivizing innovation and productivity. Governments (or decentralized systems) may need to rethink policies on taxation, ownership, and wealth distribution to ensure a thriving post-work society.
Still a Distant Reality, But Worth Pondering
While full automation and abundance remain distant, the accelerating pace of technological progress makes the future worth considering. If you live in Silicon Valley, at the forefront of what’s possible, it’s like experiencing that future every day. AI, robotics, and advanced manufacturing are already reshaping industries and reducing the need for human labor in many areas. However, we are far from a world where all work is obsolete — there are still technical, economic, and social hurdles to overcome before such a transition becomes a reality.
That said, strategizing for different scenarios now can help societies adapt more smoothly when the time comes. Key questions to explore include:
- How will wealth and resources be distributed when traditional employment declines?
- What new forms of value creation and human purpose will emerge in a post-work world?
- Will governments, decentralized systems, or private entities manage resource allocation?
- How do we ensure technological progress benefits everyone rather than concentrating wealth in a few hands?
By analyzing existing models — such as sovereign wealth funds, universal basic income experiments, and cooperative ownership structures — we can test small-scale solutions today that might become essential in the future. Governments, businesses, and thought leaders must begin discussing ethical frameworks, economic models, and social policies that could support a smooth transition into an era of post-scarcity and minimal labor dependency.
Though we may not yet be at the tipping point, laying the groundwork now ensures we are prepared when automation and abundance truly reshape the fabric of society.
That’s why I spend a lot of time envisioning the future 😌— imagining what it might look like, weighing the pros and cons, and getting excited about the possibilities, especially those that have never been explored before. As an optimist and a firm believer in longevity, technological progress, and the power of innovation for good, I invite you all to connect, collaborate, and accelerate the future — bringing it into the present faster than most would think possible.
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